We recommend that entrepreneurs and investors consider the startup’s growth stage before adopting highly systematic approaches to decision-making. While we believe that the scientific model is beneficial at all stages of startup development, how its success is assessed should align with the business’s maturity level.
Founders of Early-Stage Startups
Accepting uncertainty as a natural part of the scientific method in the early stages is crucial. Startup leaders should expect short-term performance fluctuations and be prepared for them, as core assumptions of the business model are being tested and refined.
The main focus should be on developing a “comprehensive value theory” before optimization based on performance metrics begins.
Properly setting stakeholder expectations is very important; attempting to rush through this trial phase could lead the startup down a wrong path, ultimately resulting in failure.
Founders of Established Startups
Success at this stage is achieved through continuous optimization within the existing business model framework. This involves running systematic experiments on product features, marketing methods, and customer service initiatives.
Leaders at this stage should carefully measure and evaluate the results of these incremental improvements to ensure sustainable growth and economic performance enhancement.
Conclusion:
Early-stage startups should use the scientific method to build strong business foundations, even if it leads to short-term performance declines. Mature startups should use the scientific method to optimize and achieve sustainable growth within their existing business models.
Guidance for Investors
Investors should adjust their performance expectations according to the maturity level of the startup’s business model. In the early stages of a startup, the true value lies in a thorough and strategic evaluation of the business, even if this process temporarily impacts growth metrics.
Instead of focusing solely on quick wins and immediate success, investors should pay attention to signs of systematic learning and strategic thinking within the organization.
Scientific Decision-Making: It’s Not About Good or Bad, but Time and Context
Early-stage startups need sufficient space to test the fundamental assumptions of their business—even if this process creates temporary uncertainty.
Established startups can leverage scientific methods to optimize their existing processes and achieve rapid financial performance growth.
Successful founders must understand this distinction and adjust their decision-making strategies based on the business’s growth stage:
• Knowing when to step back and reassess fundamental assumptions.
• Knowing when to use precise scientific experiments to optimize effective processes.
Conclusion:
The scientific method, like any tool, can have different effects on business performance depending on how it is used.
Success in scientific decision-making depends not only on its application but also on the stage and purpose for which it is employed.